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1.
DeDe宝 (2026-01-05 05:19):
#paper doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013826 Long-term perceptual priors drive confidence bias that favors prior-congruent evidence. Plos Computational Biology 该研究探究了长期感知先验(long-term perceptual priors)如何影响人类的感知决策与信心判断,并揭示了信心判断中存在偏向先验一致证据的偏差机制。基于贝叶斯框架的模型认为感知决策(及其置信度)基于先验和似然的基于精度的加权,然而,一些研究发现先验对置信度影响更大。研究使用Confidence Forced-Choice Task以探究感知任务重长期先验的影响,在该任务中,被试需要连续两次判断刺激的运动方向并判断在哪一次判断的置信度更高。长期感知先验可能与判断边界垂直(不提供额外偏向)或者落在其中一个方向的区域(提供额外偏向)。研究结果表明,被试更倾向于认为与先验一致的判断置信度更高,说明长期认知先验对置信度的影响存在额外的确认性偏差。研究者提出WPPCE 模型(加权后验与先验一致证据)解释观察到的信心偏差。
Abstract:
According to the Bayesian framework, both our perceptual decisions and confidence about those decisions are based on the precision-weighted integration of prior expectations and incoming sensory information. While it is … >>>
According to the Bayesian framework, both our perceptual decisions and confidence about those decisions are based on the precision-weighted integration of prior expectations and incoming sensory information. While it is generally assumed that priors influence both decisions and confidence in the same way, previous work has found priors to have a stronger impact at the confidence level, challenging this assumption. However, these patterns were found for high-level probabilistic expectations that are flexibly induced in the task context. It remains unclear whether this generalizes to low-level perceptual priors that are naturally formed through long term exposure. Here we investigated human participants’ confidence in decisions made under the influence of a long-term perceptual prior: the slow-motion prior. Participants viewed tilted moving-line stimuli for which the slow-motion prior biases the perceived motion direction. On each trial, they made two consecutive motion direction decisions followed by a confidence decision. We contrasted two conditions – one in which the prior impacted discrimination performance, and one in which it did not. We found a confidence bias favoring the condition in which the prior influenced discrimination decisions, even after accounting for performance differences. Computational modeling revealed this effect to be best explained by confidence using the prior-congruent evidence as an additional cue, beyond the posterior evidence used in the perceptual decision. This is in agreement with a confirmatory confidence bias favoring evidence congruent with low-level perceptual priors, revealing that, in line with high-level expectations, even long-term priors have a greater influence on the metacognitive level than on perceptual decisions. <<<
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2.
刘昊辰 (2026-01-04 09:37):
#paper Collapsi is strongly solved. 2025年6月由Mark S. Ball发布的两人完全信息游戏Collapsi,在16张牌(含4张A、4张2、4张3、2张4、2张Joker)组成的4×4环形棋盘上进行,玩家轮流依据所在牌面数值移动棋子,移动后起始牌翻面,无合法移动者输;Michael Young通过对称破缺将初始16!(约2.1×10¹³)种牌局简化,用带α-β剪枝的极小极大搜索算法开发求解器,20毫秒内可找最优移动,在13代Intel Core i5-13500处理器上耗时7小时29分钟完成47,297,250种等效牌局分析,发现先手(红方)仅37.5%牌局可必赢,后手(蓝方)62.5%牌局可必赢,游戏最短必赢步数为7回合,6.4%牌局中败方能将游戏拖至最大14回合,最终证明该游戏被强解。下载地址:https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.16823
arXiv, 4 Jul 2025. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2507.16823
Abstract: No abstract available.
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