张浩彬
(2023-06-30 11:45):
#paper The Capacity and Robustness Trade-off: Revisiting the Channel Independent Strategy for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting doi:
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.05206Focus to learn more
专门研究了针对多元时间序列的预测问题,探讨了使用独立预测以及联合预测的差异,证明了由于分布偏移的存在,独立预测的方法更好,应为其更加有利于缓解分布偏移的问题,提高模型的繁华性。并且文章证明了独立预测和联合预测,是一种模型容量和模型鲁棒性的权衡。随州论文提出了包括正则化,低秩分解、采用MAE代替MSE,调整序列长度等方法提高联合预测的精度
arXiv,
2023.
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.05206
The Capacity and Robustness Trade-off: Revisiting the Channel Independent Strategy for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
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Abstract:
Multivariate time series data comprises various channels of variables. The multivariate forecasting models need to capture the relationship between the channels to accurately predict future values. However, recently, there has been an emergence of methods that employ the Channel Independent (CI) strategy. These methods view multivariate time series data as separate univariate time series and disregard the correlation between channels. Surprisingly, our empirical results have shown that models trained with the CI strategy outperform those trained with the Channel Dependent (CD) strategy, usually by a significant margin. Nevertheless, the reasons behind this phenomenon have not yet been thoroughly explored in the literature. This paper provides comprehensive empirical and theoretical analyses of the characteristics of multivariate time series datasets and the CI/CD strategy. Our results conclude that the CD approach has higher capacity but often lacks robustness to accurately predict distributionally drifted time series. In contrast, the CI approach trades capacity for robust prediction. Practical measures inspired by these analyses are proposed to address the capacity and robustness dilemma, including a modified CD method called Predict Residuals with Regularization (PRReg) that can surpass the CI strategy. We hope our findings can raise awareness among researchers about the characteristics of multivariate time series and inspire the construction of better forecasting models.
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