张浩彬
(2023-01-30 13:34):
#paper https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2202.01575 COST: CONTRASTIVE LEARNING OF DISENTANGLED SEASONAL-TREND REPRESENTATIONS FOR TIME SERIES FORECASTING
1. 文章认为一个时间序列可由3个部分组成,趋势项+季节项+误差项。我们需要学习的趋势项和季节项
2. 从整体结构上看,对于原始序列通过编码器(TCN)将原始序列映射到隐空间中,之后分别通过两个结构分理出趋势项及季节项分别进行对比学习
a. 对于趋势项来说,对于获得的隐空间表示,输入到自回归专家混合提取器中进行趋势提取,并通过时域进行对比损失学习。时域的对比损失学习参考了Moco进行
b. 对于季节项,用离散傅里叶变换将隐空间映射到频域,频域损失函数定义为波幅和相位的损失。
3. 最终总的损失函数时域+频域的损失函数
4. 基于5个数据和多个基线模型进行对比,包括TS2Vec、TNC,Moco,Informer、LogTrans、TCN等,大部分取得了SOTA的效果
arXiv,
2022.
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2202.01575
CoST: Contrastive Learning of Disentangled Seasonal-Trend Representations for Time Series Forecasting
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Abstract:
Deep learning has been actively studied for time series forecasting, and the mainstream paradigm is based on the end-to-end training of neural network architectures, ranging from classical LSTM/RNNs to more recent TCNs and Transformers. Motivated by the recent success of representation learning in computer vision and natural language processing, we argue that a more promising paradigm for time series forecasting, is to first learn disentangled feature representations, followed by a simple regression fine-tuning step -- we justify such a paradigm from a causal perspective. Following this principle, we propose a new time series representation learning framework for time series forecasting named CoST, which applies contrastive learning methods to learn disentangled seasonal-trend representations. CoST comprises both time domain and frequency domain contrastive losses to learn discriminative trend and seasonal representations, respectively. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that CoST consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a considerable margin, achieving a 21.3% improvement in MSE on multivariate benchmarks. It is also robust to various choices of backbone encoders, as well as downstream regressors. Code is available at this https URL.
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