张浩彬 (2022-08-24 09:56):
#paper doi: 10.1007/s11222-022-10130-1 Merlo, L., Maruotti, A., Petrella, L., & Punzo, A. (2022). Quantile hidden semi-Markov models for multivariate time series. Statistics and Computing, 32(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10130-1 模型关键词: 解决问题:多元时间序列,分位数回归; 解决技术:隐藏半马尔科夫(解决停留时间不满足几何分布有偏问题,模型可以选择更多的分布形式,从而更加灵活)、多元非对称拉普拉斯分布(解决一般非位数回归扩到高维的问题) 估计方法:极大似然估计,EM算法 实证:意大利大气空气质量预测,尤其是极端分位数的估计
Quantile hidden semi-Markov models for multivariate time series
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Abstract:
This paper develops a quantile hidden semi-Markov regression to jointly estimate multiple quantiles for the analysis of multivariate time series. The approach is based upon the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace (MAL) distribution, which allows to model the quantiles of all univariate conditional distributions of a multivariate response simultaneously, incorporating the correlation structure among the outcomes. Unobserved serial heterogeneity across observations is modeled by introducing regime-dependent parameters that evolve according to a latent finite-state semi-Markov chain. Exploiting the hierarchical representation of the MAL, inference is carried out using an efficient Expectation-Maximization algorithm based on closed form updates for all model parameters, without parametric assumptions about the states' sojourn distributions. The validity of the proposed methodology is analyzed both by a simulation study and through the empirical analysis of air pollutant concentrations in a small Italian city.
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