林海onrush
(2026-04-30 01:30):
#paper, DFT: A Dual-branch Framework of Fluctuation and Trend for Stock Price Prediction",DOI:https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.06065,这篇论文提出 DFT(Dual-branch Framework of Fluctuation and Trend),用于股票价格/收益预测:作者认为传统模型容易混合股票的长期趋势与短期波动,且对跨时间因果关系建模不足,因此将股票表征分解为趋势分支和波动分支,分别用不同顺序建模时间相关性与股票间相关性;其中时间建模采用 RWKV 以保留时序因果性,股票相关性则用自注意力机制捕捉。实验在 CSI300、CSI800 和 S&P500 上显示,DFT 在 IC、RankIC、年化收益 AR 和信息比率 IR 等指标上显著优于 LSTM、Informer、StockMixer、MASTER 等基线,消融实验也表明趋势/波动分解、双分支结构和时间因果建模都是性能提升的关键。
arXiv,
9 Nov 2024.
DFT: A Dual-branch Framework of Fluctuation and Trend for Stock Price Prediction
Chengqi Dong, Zhiyuan Cao, S Kevin Zhou, Jia Liu
Abstract:
Stock price prediction is of significant importance in quantitative investment. Existing approaches encounter two primary issues: First, they often overlook the crucial role of capturing short-term stock fluctuations for predicting high-volatility returns. Second, mainstream methods, relying on graphs or attention mechanisms, inadequately explore the temporal relationships among stocks, often blurring distinctions in their characteristics over time and the causal relationships before and after. However, the high volatility of stocks and the intricate market correlations are crucial to accurately predicting stock prices. To address these challenges, we propose a Dual-branch Framework of Fluctuation and Trend (DFT), which decomposes stocks into trend and fluctuation components. By employing a carefully design decomposition module, DFT effectively extracts short-term fluctuations and trend information from stocks while explicitly modeling temporal variations and causal correlations. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that DFT outperforms existing methods across multiple metrics, including a 300% improvement in ranking metrics and a 400% improvement in portfolio-based indicators. Through detailed experiments, we provide valuable insights into different roles of trends and fluctuations in stock price prediction.